With network upfront presentations only a month away, tis the season for publications to begin prognosticating on which shows will return next season, which shows are on the bubble and which shows are as good as dead.

That’s how I know that The CW’s “Reaper” is dead. “Reaper” is as dead as “Knight Rider” and “The Ex-List” and “Do Not Disturb.” USA Today told me so and The Hollywood Reporter agrees and since they have “sources,” I can only assume they’re right.

The problem is that I look at the ratings every Wednesday morning and what I see doesn’t look nearly so clear-cut. While I’m not going to try telling you that “Reaper” has earned its place on The CW’s schedule for next year, it certainly has earned as much of a second look as “Privileged,” which both esteemed publications agree is, at the very least On the Bubble.

My argument after the break…

Perhaps The Hollywood Reporter and USA Today have decided that “Reaper” is dead because “Reaper” certainly was supposed to be dead. The CW brought “Reaper” back for a shortened second season as a tip of the hat to a series that seemed to have found its voice in its post-strike episodes. After idling on the shelf for a while, “Reaper” was scheduled for a mid-March premiere in the Tuesday 9 p.m. timeslot.

Then “American Idol” came along and crushed “90210″ in their first head-to-head showdown. The CW, wisely hoping to protect its fledgling crown jewel from a ratings buzzsaw targeting the identical audience (and then-some), moved “90210″ to 9 p.m. The network also pushed up the premiere of “Reaper” by two weeks (reducing the possible promo time) and placed it in the 8 p.m. hole opposite the most popular show on television. A show that creatively finished its first season like a lion, entered its second season as a lamb, a sacrificial one.

A strange thing has happened.

“Reaper,” which could have been forgiven for pulling in “13 – Fear Is Real” numbers on Tuesday night, has held its own. OK. That’s a bit of an overstatement. “Reaper” premiered on March 3 with an estimated 2.36 million viewers, just over a 10th of what “Idol” did that same night and the sort of numbers that NBC couldn’t even tolerate on a Saturday night from “Kings.” In subsequent airings, the ratings have fallen only slightly. For the season, “Reaper” is  averaging nearly 2.25 million viewers per week. Read the rest of this entry »